Tomer, A. and Puentes, R. (2009)  'Expect Delays: An analysis of air travel trends in the US', Metropolitan Infrastructure Initiative Series, Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, October 2009

http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2009/1008_air_travel_tomer_puentes.aspx. Accessed July 6, 2010

Findings

An analysis at the national and metropolitan levels of commercial air travel patterns between 1990 and 2009 reveals that:

- Air passenger travel in the United States experienced its first annualized drop in
September 2008 since the tragedy of September 11, 2001, and the decline has continued through March 2009. Strong economic growth helped American airports increase their passenger and flight levels by over 60 percent from 1990 to 2008, tripling population growth.
However, residents are traveling less since the current economic downturn, producing sustained reductions in passengers and flights since September 2008 and June 2008, respectively.

- Nearly 99 percent of all U.S. air passengers arrive or depart from one of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, with the vast majority of travel concentrated in 26 metropolitan-wide hubs. Between April 2008 and March 2009, 26 metropolitan areas captured nearly threequarters of all domestic travelers, while 20 of these metros landed 94 percent of all international passengers. These extreme shares make these metropolitan hubs the critical links in the nation’s aviation system and reinforce their role as major centers of tourism and commerce.

- Half of the country’s flights are routes of less than 500 miles, and the busiest corridors are between the metropolitan air travel centers. Corridors of no more than 500 miles constituted half of all flights and carried 30 percent of all passengers in the most recent twelve month period starting April 2008. In fact, the metro Los Angeles-San Francisco corridor, stretching 347 miles, is the second busiest corridor in the country.

- The 26 metropolitan centers of air travel and other large metropolitan areas host a
concentration of national delays—and the situation is worsening over time. The concentration within the 100 largest metropolitan areas was especially troubling with congestion-related delays as well as those lasting over two hours. Within the 26 domestic hubs, six experienced worse-than-average delays for both arrivals and departures: New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

The current economic recession led carriers to reduce flights, which improved on-time performance. However, the return of economic growth will increase travelers, reduce on-time performance, and continue the hyper-concentration of U.S. air travel within major metropolitan areas and on short-haul flights. To ensure that the commercial aviation system runs efficiently while simultaneously improving its environmental record, policymakers must focus aviation and other transportation investments on the metropolitan centers and the heavily trafficked short corridors, thus strengthening the performance of the our nation’s major economic engines.