Onzekerheid in luchthavenplanning en -ontwikkeling


Korte Engelse samenvatting:
The treatment of uncertainty about demand, technological developments, etc. in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general, and of mainports such as airports and seaports in particular, is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades, due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regulations, and the ever increasing connectedness of the world. This dissertation explores how the treatment of uncertainty in airport planning can be improved.

Currently, this treatment is limited to one or a few forecasts of future airport demand, occasionally combined with a limited set of scenarios for other developments. Such an approach limits the exploration of possible futures to those that are judged to be most likely. However, if the last decade has taught us anything, it is that the future will turn out to be substantially different from the one we are currently assuming most likely. The implication of this for decisionmaking is that any plan or policy optimized for one or a few forecasts is likely to perform poorly.

An alternative approach that is capable of handling the multiplicity of futures and accepts the limits on predictability is needed. Such an approach should result in a plan that consists of time-urgent low regret options that can be taken immediately, together with a framework for guiding future actions based on monitoring developments and taking predefined actions when needed. Thus, the decisionmaker is able to adapt the plan to the way in which the future unfolds.

This dissertation presents such a dynamic adaptive planning approach, tailors the approach to the specifics of airport planning, and provides computational evidence for the efficacy of plans that are designed utilizing this approach. It is found that airports in general, and secondary hubs such as Schiphol in particular, can benefit greatly from having dynamic adaptive plans. Unnecessary investments can be avoided and environmental impacts can be reduced effectively by adapting over time to how the future unfolds. It is recommended that, in planning for the long-term future of airports, adaptivity be explicitly considered.

10 februari, 12:30-14:00 uur

De Koepel, Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Milieu, Plesmanweg 1, Den Haag

Alleen op basis van persoonlijke uitnodiging


Category: past activities